8. Sharayah McDonald- Outside Reading 2

    During week 8 of reading, pages 191-224, the textbook explains that population growth is actually now not our planet's biggest concern, for it is actually slowing and maybe stabilizing. The biggest concern for sustainability now is urbanization in the richest countries, and the urban sprawl lifestyle that uses land, car fuel, and much more carbon per person to maintain. I wanted to see what other resources had to say about this possible population stabilization, so I found a scientific article that explains global populations projections and how we will maintain food security during all of this change. 

    The article, "Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?" agrees with what the textbook says, and explains that the UN Population Division published a study that extends population projections until 2300. Life expectancy is expected to continue to increase, and there are 3 long term fertility assumptions. The lowest fertility assumption is 1.85, which would make the global population decrease to 5.5 billion by 2100 and to 3.2 billion by 2200. The medium fertility assumption is 2.1, which is a replacement level that would stabilize the population. This would make the global population 9.1 billion by 2100 and 8.5 billion by 2200. The highest fertility assumption is 2.35, which would make the population 14.0 billion by 2100 and 21.2 billion by 2200. The article also states that "there was an 80-90% chance that the world population would reach a peak before 2100 and start to decline thereafter" (Lutz and KC). So in other words, hopefully we are currently hitting our peak population and due to new technology, contraceptives, women's education and rights, healthcare, and job opportunities, it will begin to stabilize. The medium variant or the medium fertility assumption is what most countries are hoping to occur/what most countries utilize when projecting their food security and plans. However, this article recommends that China not use the medium variant, for they have such an impact on the global population, and their fertility rate is likely to be 1.5-1.85. 

    This article also supports the textbook's claim that some countries' populations will grow and shrink exponentially, but also that the general population's age is increasing. Currently, 8% of the population is above age 65, which will double by 2040 to 16%. Asia's elderly population will triple in size, so it is the most rapidly aging region. The future elderly are also expected to be more educated and more employed longer in life. 

    This article agrees with the main points regarding population that the textbook addresses. If the medium fertility assumption is what is to be expected in the next 250 years, then the textbook is very correct to assert that overpopulation is not currently the biggest issue; overconsumption by those in the richest countries is. It is also important to note that those who live in cities emit proportionally much less carbon and use fewer resources than those in suburbs, which are slowly becoming more and more urbanized due to urban sprawl. So, rather than those in rich countries pointing the finger at poorer countries' higher populations as the cause of climate change, we all need to understand our own privilege and responsibility living in suburb environments that contribute to the most use of gas-filled vehicles. 

Here is the link to the article: 

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rstb.2010.0133#d3e555